Background photo courtesy NSSL.
Last modified 25 Sep 7
This
list of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) has been compiled from questions asked
of the SPC as well as basic tornado research information and countless
scientific resources. More material will be added, time permitting.
The Tornado FAQ is not intended to be a comprehensive
guide to tornadoes. Instead, it is a quick-reference summary of tornado
knowledge, which will link you to more detailed information if you desire.
Recent books from your local library or a major university library are still the
deepest resource for learning about tornadoes and other severe storms; so if you
are doing your own research or school reports, please visit the library in
person. There are many good websites with tornado information also. Some of them
are linked from the answers below. None of the links to outside websites implies
any kind of commercial endorsement on the part of the SPC. The intent here is to
direct you to the best tornado info available. There is also a partial list of
technical scientific references related to tornadoes for those with some
meteorological education and training.
NOTE: All images found in FAQ pages on this site must be public domain
and not copyrighted. However, credit MUST be given to National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce unless instructed to give
credit to the photographer or other source. Complete Tornado FAQ content is
found at the mirror-backup
site.
What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a
tornado is "a violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform
cloud or underneath a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a
funnel cloud." Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a
tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base.
Weather scientists haven't found it so simple in practice, however, to classify
and define tornadoes. For example, the difference is unclear between an strong
mesocyclone (parent thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak
tornado. There is also disgreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same
funnel constitute separate tornadoes. It is well-known that a tornado may not have
a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground vortex
does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic circulations
become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There
are no firm answers.
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How do tornadoes form? The classic
answer -- "warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air from the
Rockies" -- is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form under those
conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines respectively), which
never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the
large-scale environment is extremely favorable for tornadic thunderstorms, as in
an SPC "High Risk" outlook, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth
is that we don't fully understand. The most destructive and deadly tornadoes occur from supercells -- which are rotating thunderstorms with a
well-defined radar circulation called a mesocyclone. [Supercells can also produce damaging
hail, severe non-tornadic winds, unusually frequent lightning, and flash
floods.] Tornado formation is believed to be dictated mainly by things which
happen on the storm scale, in and around the mesocyclone. Recent
theories and results from the VORTEX program suggest
that once a mesocyclone is underway, tornado development is related to the
temperature differences across the edge of downdraft air wrapping around the
mesocyclone (the occlusion downdraft). Mathematical modelling studies of
tornado formation also indicate that it can happen without such temperature
patterns; and in fact, very little temperature variation was observed near some
of the most destructive tornadoes in history on 3 May
1999. The details behind these theories are given in several of the Scientific References accompanying this FAQ.
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What direction do tornadoes come from? Does the
region of the US play a role in path direction? Tornadoes can
appear from any direction. Most move from southwest to northeast, or west to
east. Some tornadoes have changed direction amid path, or even backtracked. [A
tornado can double back suddenly, for example, when its bottom is hit by outflow
winds from a thunderstorm's core.] Some areas of the US tend to have more
paths from a specific direction, such as northwest in Minnesota or southeast in
coastal south Texas. This is because of an increased frequency of certain
tornado-producing weather patterns (say, hurricanes in south Texas, or
northwest-flow weather systems in the upper Midwest).
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Does hail always come before the tornado? Rain? Lightning? Utter silence? Not
necessarily, for any of those. Rain, wind, lightning, and hail
characteristics vary from storm to storm, from one hour to the next, and even
with the direction the storm is moving with respect to the observer. While large
hail can indicate the presence of an unusually dangerous thunderstorm,
and can happen before a tornado, don't depend on it. Hail, or any
particular pattern of rain, lightning or calmness, is not a reliable predictor
of tornado threat.
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How do tornadoes dissipate? The details
are still debated by tornado scientists. We do know tornadoes need a source of
instability (heat, moisture, etc.) and a larger-scale property of rotation
(vorticity) to keep going. There are a lot of processes around a
thunderstorm which can possibly rob the area around a tornado of either
instability or vorticity. One is relatively cold outflow -- the flow of wind out of the precipitation
area of a shower or thunderstorm. Many tornadoes have been observed to go away
soon after being hit by outflow. For decades, storm observers have documented
the death of numerous tornadoes when their parent circulations ( mesocyclones) weaken after they become wrapped in
outflow air -- either from the same thunderstorm or a different one. The irony
is that some kinds of thunderstorm outflow may help to cause tornadoes,
while other forms of outflow may kill tornadoes.
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Do tornadoes really skip? Not in a
literal sense, despite what you may have read in many older references, news
stories, or even damage survey reports. By definition (above), a tornado must be
in contact with the ground. There is disagreement in meteorology over whether or
not multiple touchdowns of the same vortex or funnel
cloud mean different tornadoes (a strict interpretation). In either event,
stories of skipping tornadoes usually mean
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How long does a tornado last? Tornadoes can
last from several seconds to more than an hour. The longest-lived tornado in
history is really unknown, because so many of the long-lived tornadoes reported
from the early 1900s and before are believed to be tornado series instead. Most
tornadoes last less than 10 minutes.
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How close to a tornado does the barometer drop? And how
far does it drop ? It varies. A
barometer can start dropping many hours or even days in advance of a tornado if
there is low pressure on a broad scale moving into the area. Strong pressure
falls will often happen as the mesocyclone (parent circulation in the
thunderstorm) moves overhead or nearby. The biggest drop will be in the tornado
itself, of course. It is very hard to measure pressure in tornadoes since most
weather instruments can't survive. A few low-lying, armored probes called "turtles" have been
placed successfully in tornadoes. This includes one deployment on 15 May
2003 by engineer/storm chaser Tim Samaras, who recorded pressure fall of
over 40 millibars through an unusually large tornado. On 24 June 2003, another
of Tim's probes recorded a 100 millibar pressure
plunge in a violent tornado near Manchester, SD (National Geographic report). Despite those spectacular
results, and a few fortuitous passes over barometers through history, we still
do not have a database of tornado pressures big enough to say much about average
tornado pressures or other barometric characterstics.
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What is a waterspout? A waterspout
is a tornado over water -- usually meaning non-supercell tornadoes
over water. Waterspouts are common along the southeast U.S. coast -- especially
off southern Florida and the Keys -- and can happen over seas, bays and lakes
worldwide. Although waterspouts are always tornadoes by definition; they don't
officially count in tornado records unless they hit land. They are smaller and
weaker than the most intense Great Plains tornadoes, but still can be quite
dangerous. Waterspouts can overturn small boats, damage ships, do significant
damage when hitting land, and kill people. The National Weather Service will
often issue special marine warnings when waterspouts are likely or have been
sighted over coastal waters, or tornado warnings when waterspouts can move
onshore.
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How are tornadoes in the northern hemisphere different from tornadoes in
the southern hemisphere? The sense of
rotation is usually the opposite. Most tornadoes -- but not all! -- rotate
cyclonically, which is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and
clockwise south of the equator. Anticyclonic tornadoes
(clockwise-spinning in the northern hemisphere) have been observed, however --
usually in the form of waterspouts, non-supercell land tornadoes, or
anticyclonic whirls around the rim of a supercell's mesocyclone. There have been
several documented cases of cyclonic and anticyclonic tornadoes under the same
thunderstorm at the same time. Anticyclonically rotating supercells with
tornadoes are extremely rare; but one struck near Sunnyvale, CA, in 1998. Remember, "cyclonic"
tornadoes spin counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere, and clockwise.
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What is a multivortex tornado? Multivortex
(a.k.a. multiple-vortex) tornadoes contain two or more small, intense subvortices orbiting the center of the larger
tornado circulation. When a tornado doesn't contain too much dust and debris, they can
sometimes be spectacularly visible. These vortices may form and die within a
few seconds, sometimes appearing to train through the same part of the tornado
one after another. They can happen in all sorts of tornado sizes, from huge "wedge"
tornadoes to narrow "rope" tornadoes. Subvortices are the cause of most of the
narrow, short, extreme swaths of damage that sometimes arc through tornado
tracks. From the air, they can preferentially mow down crops and stack the
stubble, leaving cycloidal marks in fields. Multivortex tornadoes are the
source of most of the old stories from newspapers and other media before the
late 20th century which told of several tornadoes seen together at once.
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What is the original F-scale? Dr. T.
Theodore Fujita developed a damage scale (Fujita 1971, Fujita and Pearson 1973)
for winds, including tornadoes, which was supposed to relate the degree of
damage to the intensity of the wind. This scale
was the result. The original F-scale should not be used anymore, because it
has been replaced by an
enhanced version. Tornado wind speeds are still largely unknown; and the
wind speeds on the original F-scale have never been scientifically tested and
proven. Different winds may be needed to cause the same damage depending on
how well-built a structure is, wind direction, wind duration, battering by
flying debris, and a bunch of other factors. Also, the process of rating the
damage itself is largely a judgment call -- quite inconsistent and arbitrary
(Doswell and Burgess, 1988). Even meteorologists and engineers highly
experienced in damage survey techniques often came up with different F-scale
ratings for the same damage. Even with all its flaws, the original F-scale was
the only widely used tornado rating method for over three decades. The enhanced F-scale takes
effect 1 February 2007.
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What is the Enhanced F-scale? The Enhanced
F-scale (simple
table or detailed 95 page PDF) is a much
more precise and robust way to assess tornado damage than the original. It
classifies F0-F5 damage as calibrated by engineers and meteorologists across 28
different types of damage indicators (mainly various kinds of buildings, but
also a few other structures as well as trees). The idea is that a "one size fits
all" approach just doesn't work in rating tornado damage, and that a tornado
scale needs to take into account the typical strengths and weaknesses of
different types of construction. This is because the same wind does different
things to different kinds of structures. In the Enhanced F-scale, there will be
different, customized standards for assigning any given F rating to a well
built, well anchored wood-frame house compared to a garage, school, skyscraper,
unanchored house, barn, factory, utility pole or other type of structure. In a
real-life tornado track, these ratings can be mapped together more smoothly to
make a damage analysis. Of course, there still will be gaps and weaknesses on a
track where there was little or nothing to damage, but such problems will be
less common than under the original
F-scale. As with the original F-scale, the enhanced version will rate the
tornado as a whole based on most intense damage within the path. There are no
plans to systematically re-evaluate historical tornadoes using the Enhanced
F-scale. A full PDF document on the Enhanced F-scale is online.
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So if the original F-scale winds are just guesses, why are they so
specific? Excellent question. Those winds were arbitrarily attached
to the damage scale based on 12-step mathematical interpolation between the
hurricane criteria of the Beaufort
wind scale, and the threshold for Mach 1 (738 mph). Though the F-scale
actually peaks at F12 (Mach 1), only F1 through F5 are used in practice, with F0
attached for tornadoes of winds weaker than hurricane force. Again, F-scale
wind-to-damage relationships are untested, unknown and purely hypothetical. They
have never been proven and may not represent real tornadoes. F-scale winds
should not be taken literally.
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I heard the Oklahoma City tornado was almost "F6." Is that a real level
on the original F-scale? Only in
untested theory. Fujita plotted hypothetical winds higher than F5; but as
mentioned in the previous answer above, they were only guesses. Even if the
winds measured by portable Doppler radar (32 meters above ground level, roughly
302 mph) had been over 318 mph, the tornado would still be rated "only" F5 since
F5 is the most intense possible damage level. On the Enhanced F-scale, there
is no such thing as "F6."
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What is a "significant" tornado?
A
tornado is classified as "significant" if it does F2 or greater damage on the Enhanced F scale.
Grazulis (1993) also included killer tornadoes of any damage scale in his
significant tornado database. It is important to know that those definitions are
arbitrary, for scientific research. No tornado is necessarily
insignificant. Any tornado can kill or cause damage; and some tornadoes
rated less than F2 probably could do F2 or greater damage if they hit a
well-built house during peak intensity.
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Big fat
tornadoes are the strongest ones, right? Not
necessarily. There is a statistical trend (as documented
by NSSL's Harold Brooks) toward wide tornadoes having higher F-scale damage. This can be out of more strength or out of
greater opportunity for targets to damage -- or some blend of both. However, the
size or shape of any particular tornado does not say anything conclusive
about its strength. Some small "rope"
tornadoes can still do violent damage of F4 or
F5; and some very large tornadoes over a quarter-mile wide have produced
only weak damage of F0 to F1.
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Can't we weaken or destroy tornadoes somehow,
like by bombing them or sucking out their heat with a bunch of dry
ice? The main problem with anything which could realistically stand a chance
at affecting a tornado (e.g., hydrogen bomb) is that it would be even more
deadly and destructive than the tornado itself. Lesser things (like huge piles
of dry ice or smaller conventional weaponry) would be too hard to deploy in the
right place fast enough, and would likely not have enough impact to affect the
tornado much anyway. Imagine the legal problems one would face, too, by trying
to bomb or ice a tornado, then inadvertantly hurting someone or destroying
private property in the process. In short -- bad idea!
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How does cloud seeding affect tornadoes?
Nobody
knows, for certain. There is no proof that seeding can or cannot change tornado
potential in a thunderstorm. This is because there is no way to know that the
things a thunderstorm does after seeding would not have happened anyway.
This includes any presence or lack of rain, hail, wind gusts or tornadoes.
Because the effects of seeding are impossible to prove or disprove, there is a
great deal of controversy in meteorology about whether it works, and if so,
under what conditions, and to what extent.
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What does a tornado sound like? That depends
on what it is hitting, its size, intensity, closeness and other factors. The
most common tornado sound is a continuous rumble, like a closeby train.
Sometimes a tornado produces a loud whooshing sound, like that of a waterfall or
of open car windows while driving very fast. Tornadoes which are tearing through
densely populated areas may be producing all kinds of loud noises at once, which
collectively may make a tremendous roar. Just because you may have heard a
loud roar during a damaging storm does not necessarily mean it was a
tornado. Any intense thunderstorm wind can produce damage and cause a roar.
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Where can I get tornado pictures? Photographic prints of tornadoes are sold by a number of
storm chasers and by the NSEA Concession. You can see many interesting free weather
images at http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/noaa_products/.
There are also several stock photography agencies specializing in, or peddling
on the side, weather photos which include tornadoes. A search engine can help
you find online stock photo outfits and tornado photographs. For digital online
photos, many tornado-related websites display images; but since all personal
photography is legally copyrighted upon creation. Photos on this site and all
National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) agencies, including the National Weather
Service, are public domain and free to download, though credit to the agency
and/or source is required.
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Where can I get video of tornadoes? Public-domain
videos of National Severe Storms Lab tornado intercept footage are available for
a reproduction fee through a video
transfer service used by NSSL. Many production companies, TV stations and
storm chasers have made videotapes of tornadoes available for sale as well. Try
web search engines and storm chaser pages. This FAQ will not endorse any
particular commercial tornado video source or tour operation.
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Do hurricanes and tropical storms produce tornadoes?
Often, but not always. There are great differences from storm to storm,
not necessarily related to tropical cyclone size or intensity. Some
landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. fail to produce any known tornadoes, while
others cause major outbreaks. The same hurricane also may have none for awhile,
then erupt with tornadoes...or vice versa! Andrew (1992), for example, spawned
several tornadoes across the Deep South after crossing the Gulf, but produced
none during its rampage across South Florida. Katrina (2005) spawned numerous
tornadoes after its devastating LA/MS landfall, but only one in Florida (in the
Keys). Though fewer tornadoes tend to occur with tropical depressions and
tropical storms than hurricanes, there are notable exceptions like TS Beryl of
1994 in the Carolinas. Some tropical cyclones even produce two distinct sets of
tornadoes -- one around the time of landfall over Florida or the Gulf Coast, the
other when well inland or exiting the Atlantic coast.
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What's the nature of tornadoes in hurricanes and
tropical storms? Hurricane-spawned tornadoes tend to occur in small,
low-topped supercells within the outer bands, NNW through ESE of the center --
mainly the northeast quadrant. There, the orientation and speed of the winds
create vertical shear profiles somewhat resembling those around classic
Great Plains supercells -- the shear being in a shallower layer but often
stronger. Occasionally a tornado will happen in the inner bands as well, but the
large majority still form outside the hurricane force wind zone. Because
tornado-producing circulations in hurricane supercells tend to be smaller and
shorter-lived than their Midwest counterparts, they are harder to detect on Doppler
radar, and more difficult to warn for. But hurricane-spawned tornadoes can
still be quite deadly and destructive, as shown by the F3 tornado from Hurricane
Andrew at La Place LA (1992, 2 killed) and an F4 tornado at Galveston TX from
Hurricane Carla (1961, 8 killed).
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Do tropical cyclones produce waterspouts?
Yes. Waterspouts -- tornadoes over water -- have been observed in
tropical systems. We don't know how many of them happen in tropical cyclones,
but a majority probably are from supercells. The similarity in Doppler
radar velocity signatures over water to tornado-producing cells in
landfalling hurricanes suggests that it may be common -- and yet another good
reason for ships to steer well clear of tropical cyclones.
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Does tropical cyclone strength or size matter for
tornadoes? Often, but not always. Relatively weak hurricanes like
Danny (1985) have spawned significant supercell tornadoes well inland, as have
larger, more intense storms like Beulah (1967) and Ivan (2004). In general, the
bigger and stronger the wind fields are with a tropical cyclone, the bigger the
area of favorable wind shear for supercells and tornadoes. But supercell
tornadoes (whether or not in tropical cyclones) also depend on instability, lift
and moisture. Surface moisture isn't lacking in a tropical cyclone, but
sometimes instability and lift are too weak. This is why tropical systems tend
to produce more tornadoes in the daytime and near any fronts that may get
involved in the cyclone circulation. It is also why SPC won't always have
tornado watches out for every instance of a tropical cyclone affecting land. For
more details, there is a set of articles on tropical cyclone tornadoes listed in
the Scientific References section. For more information on
hurricanes, go to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ by Chris Landsea, Neal Dorst and Erica
Rule.
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Who forecasts tornadoes? In the U.S., only the National Weather Service (NWS) issues tornado
forecasts nationwide. Warnings come from each NWS office. The Storm Prediction Center issues watches,
general severe
weather outlooks, and mesoscale discussions. Tornadoes in Canada are handled by the
Meteorological Service of Canada. Very few other nations have
specific tornado watch and warning services.
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How do you forecast tornadoes? This is a very simple question with no
simple answer! Here is a very generalized view from the perspective of a
severe weather forecaster: When predicting severe weather (including tornadoes)
a day or two in advance, we look for the development of temperature and wind
flow patterns in the atmosphere which can cause enough moisture, instability,
lift, and wind shear for tornadic thunderstorms. Those are the four needed
ingredients. But it is not as easy as it sounds. "How much is enough" of those
is not a hard fast number, but varies a lot from situation to situation -- and
sometimes is unknown! A large variety of weather patterns can lead to tornadoes;
and often, similar patterns may produce no severe weather at all. To further
complicate it, the various computer models we use days in advance can have major
biases and flaws when the forecaster tries to interpret them on the scale of
thunderstorms. As the event gets closer, the forecast usually (but not always)
loses some uncertainty and narrows down to a more precise threat area. [At SPC,
this is the transition from outlook to mesoscale discussion to watch.]
Real-time weather observations -- from satellites, weather stations, balloon
packages, airplanes, wind profilers and radar-derived winds -- become more and
more critical the sooner the thunderstorms are expected; and the models become
less important. To figure out where the thunderstorms will form, we must do some
hard, short-fuse detective work: Find out the location, strength and movement of
the fronts, drylines, outflows, and other boundaries between air masses which
tend to provide lift. Figure out the moisture and temperatures -- both near
ground and aloft -- which will help storms form and stay alive in this
situation. Find the wind structures in the atmosphere which can make a
thunderstorm rotate as a supercell, then produce tornadoes. [Many supercells never spawn a tornado!] Make an
educated guess where the most favorable combination of ingredients will be and
when; then draw the areas and type the forecast.
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That sounds really hard. What hardware and software
tools do you use to help you forecast tornadoes? The most
important hardware for forecasting at the Storm Prediction
Center is the human hand. Numerous hand-drawn
analyses of surface and upper-air data are still performed at SPC every day
so forecasters can be intimately familiar with the weather features. SPC
forecasters also use high-performance computer workstations (mainly running Unix
and Windows 98), with a huge variety of software to display the things we need
to help us forecast severe weather. The variety of those things is enormous:
many kinds of computer model displays, satellite
image loops, radar displays, wind
profiler and radar-wind plots, data from surface weather
stations, upper
air data from balloons and planes, lightning strike
plots, weather
data tables, multiple-source
overlays, and more. It may sound trite; but by far, the most important
software in the tornado forecast process is within the human brain. The
forecaster must use it to sort all that information, toss out what is not
needed, properly interpret what is needed, and put it into a coherent form --
all on a time deadline.
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What is needed to be a good tornado forecaster? It all starts
with...
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What is the tornado forecast for next spring? Are there going to be
tornadoes in Iowa the week of next October 5? We just don't know. Tornado forecasting today and tomorrow is
quite difficult already. Specific severe weather forecasting more than days in
advance is little more than guessing, or using tornado climatology for the
forecast area and time of year. For that reason, there is no such thing as a
long range severe storm or tornado forecast. There are simply too many
small-scale variables involved which we cannot reliably measure or model weeks
or months ahead of time; so no scientific forecasters even attempt them. Our
farthest convective outlook is for day-3, and can be found on the SPC Forecasts
page. Perhaps, someday, the density of weather observations and atmospheric
modelling capabilities will advance enough to allow us to do severe storms
forecasting many days out with some degree of accuracy better than a coin toss.
We are a long, long way from that kind of forecasting!
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What is the role of Doppler radar in tornado
forecasting? Each NWS forecast office uses output from at least one Doppler
radar in the area to help to determine if a warning is needed.
Doppler radar signatures can tell warning meteorologists a great deal about a
thunderstorm's structure, but usually can't see the tornado itself. This is
because the radar beam gets too wide to resolve even the biggest tornadoes
within a few tens of miles after leaving the transmitter. Instead, a radar
indicates strong winds blowing toward and away from it in a way that tells
forecasters, "An intense circulation probably exists in this storm and a tornado
is possible." Possible doesn't mean certain, though. That is why local
forecasters must also depend on spotter reports, SPC forecast guidance on the general
severe weather threat, and in-house analysis of the weather situation over the
region containing thunderstorms, to make the best-informed warning decisions.
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What was the first successful tornado
forecast? Nobody knows when was the first time someone claimed a
tornado would occur in an area, and it happened. But the first documented,
successful tornado forecast by meteorologists was on March 25, 1948, by Air Force Capt. (later Col.) Robert Miller and Major Ernest Fawbush. After they noticed striking similarities
in the developing weather pattern to others which produced tornadoes (including
the Tinker AFB, OK, tornado several days before), Fawbush and Miller advised
their superior officer of a tornado threat in central Oklahoma that evening.
Compelled from above to issue a yes/no decision on a tornado forecast after
thunderstorms developed in western Oklahoma, they put out the word of possible
tornadoes, and the base carried out safety precautions. A few hours later,
despite the tiny odds of a repeat, the second tornado in five days directly hit
the base. For more insight into this event, Charlie Crisp has transcribed the
late Col. Miller's recollections of the event; and they are now online.
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What is the history of tornado forecasting?
It's too long and eventful to summarize here; but there is an online
guide at NSSL, as well as a timeline of
SELS and SPC, and a history of the SPC that provide insight into how tornado
prediction has evolved. There is also an entire book devoted to the subject:
Scanning the Skies : A History of Tornado Forecasting by Marlene Bradford
(hardcover - March 2001). Some libraries, bookstores and online book sellers
carry this comprehensive and detailed history work.
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Was tornado forecasting once banned in the U.S.? Yes. Before
1950, at various stages of development of the Weather Bureau, the use of the
word "tornado" in forecasts was at times strongly discouraged and at other times
forbidden, because of a fear that predicting tornadoes may cause panic. This was
in an era when very little was known about tornadoes compared to today, by both
scientists and the public at large. Tornadoes were, for most, dark and
mysterious menaces of unfathomable power, fast-striking monsters from the sky
capable of sudden and unpredictable acts of death and devastation. As the
weather patterns which led to major tornado events became better documented and
researched, the mystery behind predicting them began to clear -- a process which
still is far from complete, of course. In 1950, the Weather Bureau revoked the ban
(PDF) on mentioning tornadoes in forecasts.
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How has SPC performed with tornado forecasting? By most measures, SPC (formerly SELS, NSSFC) has improved its
tornado forecasting over the past few decades. There are many ways to
objectively gauge forecast performance -- for example, verifying
tornado watches with tornado reports and both watch
types by all severe reports. The general trend from 1985-2003 has been for a
greater percentage of tornado watches to contain tornadoes.
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...damage rating is (at best) an exercise in educated guessing. Even
experienced damage-survey meteorologists and wind engineers can and often do
disagree among themselves on a tornado's strength.
How is tornado damage rated? The most
widely used method worldwide, for over three decades, was the F-scale developed by
Dr. T. Theodore Fujita. In the U.S., and probably elsewhere within a few years,
the new Enhanced
F-scale is becoming the standard for assessing tornado damage. In Britain,
there is a scale similar to the original F-scale but with more divisions;
for more info, go to the TORRO scale website. In both original F- and TORRO-scales,
the wind speeds are based on calculations of the Beaufort
wind scale and have never been scientifically verified in real tornadoes.
Enhanced F-scale winds are derived from engineering guidelines but still are
only judgmental estimates. Because:
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Who surveys tornado damage? What's the criteria for
the National Weather Service to do a survey? This varies
from place to place; and there is no rigid criteria. The responsibility for
damage survey decisions at each NWS office usually falls on the Warning-Coordination
Meteorologist (WCM) and/or the Meteorologist in Charge (MIC). Budget constraints
keep every tornado path from having a direct ground survey by NWS personnel; so
spotter, chaser and
news accounts may be used to rate relatively weak, remote or brief tornadoes.
Killer tornadoes, those striking densely populated areas, or those generating
reports of exceptional damage are given highest priority for ground surveys.
Most ground surveys involve the WCM and/or forecasters not having shift
responsibility the day of the survey. For outbreaks and unusually destructive
events -- usually only a few times a year -- the NWS may support involvement by
highly experienced damage survey experts and wind engineers from elsewhere in
the country. Aerial surveys are expensive and usually reserved for tornado
events with multiple casualties and/or massive degrees of damage. Sometimes,
local NWS offices may have a cooperative agreement with local media or police to
use their helicopters during surveys.
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How can a tornado destroy one house and leave the next one almost
unscratched? Most of the time, this happens either with multiple-vortex tornadoes or very small, intense single-vortex
tornadoes. The winds in most of a multivortex tornado
may only be strong enough to do minor damage to a particular house. But one of
the smaller embedded subvortices, perhaps only a few dozen feet across, may
strike the house next door with winds over 200 mph, causing complete
destruction. Also, there can be great differences in construction from one
building to the next, so that even in the same wind speed, one may be flattened
while the other is barely nicked. For example, a flimsy, unanchored mobile home
may be obliterated while all surrounding objects suffer little or no
damage.
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How do tornadoes do some weird things, like drive
straw into trees, strip road pavement and drive splinters into
bricks? The list of bizarre things attributed to tornadoes is
almost endless. Much of it is folklore; but there are some weird scenes in
tornado damage. Asphalt pavement may strip when tornado winds sandblast the
edges with gravel and other small detritus, eroding the edges and causing chunks
to peel loose from the road base. Storm chasers and damage surveyors have
observed this phenomenon often after the passage of a violent tornado. With a
specially designed cannon, wind engineers at Texas Tech University have fired boards and
other objects at over 100 mph into various types of construction materials,
duplicating some of the kinds of "bizarre" effects, such as wood splinters
embedded in bricks. Intense winds can bend a tree or other objects, creating
cracks in which which debris (e.g., hay straw) becomes lodged before the tree
straightens and the crack tightens shut again. All bizarre damage effects have a
physical cause inside the roiling maelstrom of tornado winds. We don't fully
understand what some of those causes are yet, however; because much of it is
almost impossible to simulate in a lab.
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I've heard about tornadoes picking up objects and
carrying them for miles. Does this happen? Who does research on it?
Yes,
numerous tornadoes have lofted (mainly light) debris many miles into the sky,
which was then carried by middle- and upper-atmospheric winds for long
distances. The vertical winds in tornadoes can be strong enough to temporarily
levitate even heavy objects if they have a large face to the wind or flat sides
(like roofs, walls, trees and cars), and are strong enough to carry lightweight
objects tens of thousands of feet high. Though the heaviest objects, such as
railroad cars, can only be airborne for short distances, stories of checks and
other papers found over 100 miles away are often true. The Worcester MA tornado
of 9 June 1953 carried mattress pieces high into the thunderstorm, where they
were coated in ice, before they fell into Boston Harbor. Pilots reported seeing
debris fluttering through the air at high altitude near the thunderstorm which
spawned the Ruskin Heights MO tornado of 20 May 1957. There is a research group at the University of Oklahoma which studies
tornado debris flight. If you personally know of a case of tornado debris
carried long-distance, they have a hotline you can call to report it.
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How does the damage from tornadoes compare to that of hurricanes?
The differences are in scale. Even though winds from the strongest
tornadoes far exceed that from the strongest hurricanes, hurricanes typically
cause much more damage individually and over a season, and over far bigger
areas. Economically, tornadoes cause about a tenth as much damage per year, on
average, as hurricanes. Hurricanes tend to cause much more overall destruction
than tornadoes because of their much larger size, longer duration and their
greater variety of ways to damage property. The destructive core in hurricanes
can be tens of miles across, last many hours and damage structures through storm
surge and rainfall-caused flooding, as well as from wind. Tornadoes, in
contrast, tend to be a few hundred yards in diameter, last for minutes and
primarily cause damage from their extreme winds.
Where can I find free pictures of tornado
damage?
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What should I do in case of a tornado? That depends
on where you are. This list of tornado safety tips covers most situations.
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What is a tornado watch? A tornado watch defines an area shaped like a parallelogram, where
tornadoes and other kinds of severe weather are possible in the next several
hours. It does not mean tornadoes are imminent -- just that you need to be
alert, and to be prepared to go to safe shelter if tornadoes do happen or a
warning is issued. This is the time to turn on local TV or radio, turn on and
set the alarm switch on your weather radio, make sure you have ready access to
safe shelter, and make your friends and family aware of the potential for
tornadoes in the area. The Storm Prediction Center issues tornado and severe thunderstorm
watches; here is an
example. For more information on tornado watches and other SPC bulletins, go here.
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What is a tornado warning? A tornado
warning means that a tornado has been spotted, or that Doppler
radar indicates a thunderstorm circulation which can spawn a tornado. When a
tornado warning is issued for your town or county, take immediate safety
precautions. local NWS offices issue tornado warnings.
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Do mobile homes attract tornadoes?
Of
course not. It may seem that way, considering most tornado deaths occur in them,
and that some of the most graphic reports of tornado damage come from mobile
home communities. The reason for this is that mobile homes are, in general, much
easier for a tornado to damage and destroy than well-built houses and office
buildings. A brief, relatively weak tornado which may have gone undetected in
the wilderness -- or misclassified as severe straight-line thunderstorm winds
while doing minor damage to sturdy houses -- can blow a
mobile home apart. Historically, mobile home parks have been reliable
indicators, not attractors, of tornadoes.
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Long ago, I was told to open windows to equalize pressure. Now I have
heard that's a bad thing to do. Which is right? Opening the
windows is absolutely useless, a waste of precious time, and can be very
dangerous. Don't do it. You may be injured by flying glass trying to do it. And
if the tornado hits your home, it will blast the windows open anyway.
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I've seen a video of people running under a bridge to
ride out a tornado. Is that safe? Absolutely
not! Stopping under a bridge to take shelter from a tornado is a very dangerous
idea, for several reasons:
The people in that infamous video were extremely fortunate not to have
been hurt or killed. They were actually not inside the tornado vortex itself, but instead in a
surface inflow jet -- a small belt of intense wind flowing into the base
of the tornado a few dozen yards to their south. Even then, flying debris could
have caused serious injury or death. More recently, on 3 May
1999, two people were killed and several others injured outdoors in
Newcastle and Moore OK, when a violent tornado blew them out from under bridges
on I-44 and I-35.
Another person was killed that night in his truck, which was parked under a
bridge. For more information, meteorologist Dan Miller of NWS Norman has
assembled 25-slide online presentation about this problem.
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So if I'm in a car, which is supposed to be very
unsafe, and shouldn't get under a bridge, what can I do? Vehicles are
notorious as death traps in tornadoes, because they are easily
tossed and destroyed. Either leave the vehicle for sturdy shelter or drive
out of the tornado's path. When the traffic is jammed or the tornado is bearing
down on you at close range, your only option may be to park safely off the
traffic lanes, get out and find a sturdy building for shelter, if possible. If
not, lie flat in a low spot, as far from the road as possible (to avoid flying
vehicles). However, in open country, the best option is to escape if the tornado
is far away. If the traffic allows, and the tornado is distant, you
probably have time to drive out of its path. Watch the tornado closely for a few
seconds compared to a fixed object in the foreground (such as a tree, pole, or
other landmark). If it appears to be moving to your right or left, it is not
moving toward you. Still, you should escape at right angles to its track: to
your right if it is moving to your left, and vice versa -- just to put more
distance between you and its path. If the tornado appears to stay in the same
place, growing larger or getting closer -- but not moving either right or left
-- it is headed right at you. You must take shelter away from the car or get out
of its way fast!
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I have a basement, and my friend said to go to the
southwest corner in a tornado. Is that good? Not
necessarily. The SW corner is no safer than any other part of the basement,
because walls, floors and furniture can collapse (or be blown) into any corner.
The "safe southwest corner" is an old myth based on the belief that, since
tornadoes usually come from the SW, debris will preferentially fall into the NE
side of the basement. There are several problems with this concept, including:
In a basement, the safest place is under a sturdy workbench, mattress
or other such protection -- and out from under heavy furniture or appliances
resting on top of the floor above.
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What is a safe room? So-called
"safe rooms" are reinforced small rooms built in the interior of a home, which
are fortified by concrete and/or steel to offer extra protection against
tornadoes, hurricanes and other severe windstorms. They can be built in a
basement, or if no basement is available, on the ground floor. In existing
homes, interior bathrooms or closets can be fortified into "safe rooms" also.
FEMA has more details
online.
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What about community tornado shelters?
Community tornado shelters are excellent ideas for apartment complexes,
schools, mobile home parks, factories, office complexes and
other facilities where large groups of people live, work or study. FEMA has some
excellent design
and construction guidance for these kinds of shelters; and a licensed
engineer can help customize them to the needs of your facility.
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What about tornado safety in sports stadiums or outdoor
festivals? Excellent question -- and a very, very disturbing one to
many meteorologists. Tornadoes have passed close to such gatherings on a few
occasions, including a horse race in Omaha on 6 May 1975 and a crowded dog track
in West Memphis AR on 14 December 1987. A supercell without a
tornado hit a riverside festival in Ft. Worth in 1995, catching over 10,000
people outdoors and bashing many of them with hail bigger than baseballs. Just
in the last few years, tornadoes have hit the football stadium for the NFL
Tennessee Titans, and the basketball arena for the NBA Utah Jazz. Fortunately,
they were both nearly empty of people at the time. There is the potential for
massive death tolls if a stadium or fairground is hit by a tornado during a
concert, festival or sporting event -- even with a warning in effect. Fans may
never know about the warning; and even if they do, mass-panic could ensue and
result in casualties even if the tornado doesn't hit. Stadium and festival
managers should work with local emergency management officials to develop a plan
for tornado emergencies -- both for crowd safety during the watch and warning
stages, and (similar to a terrorism plan) for dealing with mass casualties after
the tornado.
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I am a school administrator, and I don't know where
to start with developing a safety plan. Can you help? Gladly. Every
school is different, so a safety plan which works fine for one may not be
well-suited for another. There is a website
with preparedness tips for school administrators which can provide helpful
tips in devising a safety plan. These strategies can be adapted for nursing
homes, dorms, barracks and similar structures as well.
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I am seeking advice to protect employees in a large, one-story
commercial building that has pre-poured cement outer walls and a metal roof. We
have no basement, the interior offices are drywall partitions with a dropped
ceiling and there does not appear to be any area that is secure. The local fire
department has no suggestions. This manner of
construction is very common; however, it's hard to know the integrity of any
particular building without an engineering analysis, preferably by hiring a
specialist with experience in wind engineering. My experience doing damage
surveys is that large-span, pre-fab, concrete and metal beam buildings are very
sturdy up to a "break point" -- which can vary a lot from site to site -- but
then crumple quickly and violently once that threshold is reached. A
concrete-lined (and -topped) safe room with no windows is recommended. This is
an emergency bunker that may double as a restroom, break room or employee
lounge, but should be big enough to fit all occupants in the event of a warning.
For more information on safe rooms, see FEMA's safe room page,
which deals mainly with residential construction, but which can be adapted for
office use. As noted there, the Wind Engineering Research Center at Texas Tech
University also provides technical guidance about shelters. Their toll free
number is 1-(888) 946-3287, ext. 336.
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What would happen if a large, violent tornado hit a
major city today? This has happened on several occasions, including in parts
of Oklahoma City on May 3, 1999. Because of excellent, timely watches and
warnings and intense media coverage of the Oklahoma tornado long before it hit,
only 36 people were killed. The damage toll exceeded $1 billion. Still,
it did not strike downtown, and passed over many miles of undeveloped land.
Moving the same path north or south in the same area may have led to much
greater death and damage tolls. The threat exists for a far worse disaster!
Placing the same
tornado outbreak in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, especially during rush
hour gridlock (with up to 62,000 vehicles stuck in the path), the damage could
triple what was done in Oklahoma. There could be staggering death tolls in the
hundreds or thousands, and overwhelmed emergency services. Ponder the prospect
of such
a tornado's path in downtown Dallas, for example. The North Texas Council of
Governments and NWS Ft. Worth has compiled a very detailed
study of several such violent tornado disaster scenarios in the Metroplex,
which could be adapted to other major metro areas as well.
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Could we have some sort of alert system where a computer automatically
calls people in a tornado warning to let them know they could be in
danger? This idea has some merit. Right now, though, there are
several logistical problems. First, a tornado may take out phone lines, or the
power to run them. Barring that, the phone network reaches saturation pretty
easily if someone (or something) tries to try to dial thousands of numbers at
once. Finally, people would need to be patient and willing to accept a majority
of false alarm calls. Most tornado warnings do not contain tornadoes, because of
the uncertainties built into tornado detection which we can't yet help. And even
when a tornado happens, it usually hits only a tiny fraction of the warned area
(again, because of forecasting uncertainties); so most people called by the
automated system would not be directly hit.
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I recently moved from the Plains and noticed that there are
no "tornado warning" sirens here. Is this because tornadoes don't occur here?
Isn't it required to have sirens everywhere? Siren policy
seems to vary a lot from place to place; and it is something over which the
National Weather Service has no control. There is no nationwide requirement for
tornado sirens. The NWS issues watches and warnings; but it is up to the local
governments to have a community readiness system in place for their citizens. In
conversations with emergency managers and spotter coordinators, I have found
that the two most common reasons for a lack of sirens are low budgets and the
perception that tornadoes cannot happen in an area. The latter is false;
and the former is a matter of fiscal priorities. Your city and/or county
emergency manager would be the first person to query about the tornado
preparedness program in your community.
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Our office would like to print signs
(universal symbol image type signs) similar to "emergency exit," "fire
extinguisher," etc. that could be used to identify designated tornado shelter
areas. Can you provide me with a graphic or something I can use?
Sure!
There isn't a universal tornado shelter symbol yet. Any such sign should be very
bold and noticeable -- yet designed to be simple, with minimal visual clutter,
so even a small child can recognize it. In response to this question, here is one possible tornado
shelter sign which may be printed and used freely. There are also versions
with arrows pointing right, left, up, and down. The signs
ideally should be printed in color, on heavy card stock or sticker paper for
durability.
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What were the deadliest U.S. tornadoes?
The
"Tri-state" tornado of 18 March 1925 killed 695 people as it raced along at
60-73 mph in a 219 mile long track across parts of Missouri, Illinois and
Indiana, producing F5 damage. The death toll is an estimate based on the work of
Grazulis (1993); older references have different counts. This event also holds
the known record for most tornado fatalities in a single city or town: at least
234 at Murphysboro IL. The 25 deadliest tornadoes on record
are
listed here. We also have web links
related to this and other major tornado events.
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What were the deadliest U.S. tornado days?
On 3
April 1974, the main day of the two-day "Super Outbreak," tornadoes killed 308
people. The next deadliest day for tornadoes was 11 April 1965, the original
"Palm Sunday Outbreak," where 260 perished. A list is online of top 20
deadliest tornado days since detailed record keeping began in 1950.
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What was the biggest outbreak of
tornadoes? 147 tornadoes touched down in 13 U.S. states on 3 and 4
April, 1974. Here is
a map of them , with F-scale damage plotted beside each. [One more tornado
touched down in Canada at Windsor ON, then lifted as it entered MI, for a total
of 148. Since it did no damage in the U.S., it is not counted in the U.S.
tornado database used to plot our map.] The outbreak killed 310 in the U.S., 8
in Canada, with 5454 U.S. injuries and 23 hurt in Canada. 48 of the tornadoes
were killers. Seven produced damage rated F5 -- the maximum possible -- and 23
more were rated F4. This was one of only two outbreaks with over 100 confirmed
tornadoes, the other being with Hurricane Beulah in 1967 (115 tornadoes). In
1999, NOAA Public Affairs created a large website
on the 1974 super-outbreak in commemoration of its 25th anniversary. SPC
also has a list of web links devoted to this and other major tornado
events.
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What was the biggest known tornado? The Hallam,
Nebraska F4 tornado of 22 May 2004 is the newest record-holder for peak
width, at nearly two and a half miles, as surveyed by Brian Smith of NWS
Omaha. This is probably close to the maximum size for tornadoes; but it is
possible that larger, unrecorded ones have occurred.
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What single month had the most tornadoes? The record for
most tornadoes in any month (since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950)
was set in May 2003, with 543 tornadoes confirmed in the final numbers. This
easily broke the old mark of 399, set in June 1992. For more on the most active
tornado month, see the May 2003 Tornado Statistics page.
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What was the strongest tornado? What is the highest
wind speed in a tornado? Nobody knows.
Tornado wind speeds have only been directly recorded in the weaker ones, because
strong and violent tornadoes destroy weather instruments. Mobile Doppler radars
such as the OU Doppler on Wheels have remotely sensed tornado wind speeds
above ground level as high as about 302 mph (on 3 May 1999 near Bridge Creek OK)
-- the highest winds ever found near earth's surface by any means. [That tornado
caused F5
damage.] But ground-level wind speeds in the most violent tornadoes have
never been directly measured.
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What was the costliest tornado? A tornado in
central and northern Georgia, on 31 March 1973, is listed in Storm Data
as having produced $1,250,000,000.00 in actual damage and $5,175,000,000.00 when
inflation-adjusted -- both record amounts. The Bridge Creek-Moore-Oklahoma
City-Midwest City, OK, tornado of 3 May 1999
currently ranks second in actual dollars but fourth when inflation adjusted. A
top-10 damage listing is online here.
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Do you have a list of some F5 tornadoes?
Yes, and here it is. Remember: Because the only way we can compare all
tornadoes is by whatever damage they caused, and F5 damage is
only possible when tornadoes hit well-built structures, the true "violence" of
most historical tornadoes is unknown -- especially before the middle to late
20th century.
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Where can I find stories and descriptions of historic
tornadoes? There is a partial list of
links to websites dedicated to individual tornado events here at the SPC.
Otherwise, start at your local library. Check the library's historical archives.
It helps when searching online or microfilm newspaper records to know the date
and location of the tornado(es). On the Internet, a search engine can help you
find info on tornado events. Try different combinations of keywords like "Oak
Lawn tornado" and "Illinois tornadoes," for example, if searching for online
material on a tornado in Oak Lawn IL. For places away from
your home area, use the Internet search engines; or write or e-mail local and
university libraries in the area the tornado(es) occurred. Many larger city and
university libraries have a copy of the book Significant Tornadoes,
1680-1991 by Thomas P. Grazulis -- an excellent source for stories about
thousands of tornadoes in U.S. history. Tom's online site at The Tornado Project also has some historical tornado
descriptions, though far fewer than the book.
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What tornadoes have killed people this year? Last year or other
years? SPC keeps an online table of killer
tornadoes for 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998 and 1997. Most of this year's information is preliminary and may
change when the final storm summaries are sent to the National Climatic Data
Center (NCDC) by local
National Weather Service offices. Information for all tornadoes and severe
weather events -- including killer tornadoes -- is provided by month (and
organized by state) in the NCDC publication Storm Data.
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Will historical tornadoes be assigned Enhanced F-scale
ratings? Probably not. To get a consistent climatology, records and
descriptions of tens of thousands of tornadoes would have to be examined one by
one, and there are neither plans nor money nor staffing at any tornado-related
office for such a gigantic task. However, it certainly is possible that
individual tornadoes or outbreaks may be examined for Enhanced F-scale rating
from time to time, as interested researchers decide to revisit specific events
of historic significance. Tornadoes from February 2007 onward will be rated
using the Enhanced F-scale and can be compared to each other in that way.
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How many tornadoes hit the US yearly? About one
thousand. The actual average is unknown, because tornado spotting and reporting
methods have changed so much in the last several decades that the officially
recorded tornado climatologies are believed to be incomplete. Also, in the
course of recording thousands of tornadoes, errors are bound to occur. Events
can be missed or mis-classified; and some non-damaging tornadoes in remote areas
could still be unreported.
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How many tornadoes have there been in the US this year and how does it
compare to previous years? Killer tornadoes? Such tornado report totals are in an online table of monthly tornado stastistics at the SPC.
Remember, those are preliminary numbers which may be amended at any time.
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How many people are killed every year by tornadoes? How do
most deaths happen in tornadoes? On average,
tornadoes kill about 60 people per year -- most from flying or falling
(crushing) debris.
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What is tornado season? Tornado season
usually means the peak period for historical tornado reports in an area, when
averaged over the history of reports. There is a general northward shift in
"tornado season" in the U.S. from late winter through mid summer. The peak
period for tornadoes in the southern plains, for example, is during May into
early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern
plains and upper Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen
any time of year if the conditions are right! If you want to know the
tornado peak periods for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado probability
graphics, which include distribution during the year.
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What is Tornado Alley? Tornado Alley
is a nickname in the popular media for a broad swath of relatively high tornado
occurrence in the central U.S. Various Tornado Alley maps which you may see can
look different because tornado occurrence can be measured many ways -- by all
tornadoes, tornado county-segments, strong and violent tornadoes only, and
databaes with different time periods. Most recently, Concannon, et
al., have prepared a "Tornado Alley" map
using significant
tornado data. Remember, this is only a map of greatest incidence. Violent
or killer tornadoes do happen outside this Tornado Alley every year.
Tornadoes can occur almost anywhere in the U.S., including west of the Rockies
and east of the Appalachians -- and even in Canada and overseas.
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Does El Niause tornadoes? No. Neither
does La Ni Both are major changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical
Pacific which occur over the span of months. U.S. tornadoes happen thousands of
miles away on the order of seconds and minutes. El Nioes adjust large-scale
weather patterns. But in between those and tornadoes, there are way too many
variables to say conclusively what role El Nior La Nihas in changing tornado
risk; and it certainly does not directly cause tornadoes. A few studies have
shown some loose associations between El Niears and regional trends in tornado
numbers from year to year; but that still doesn't prove cause and effect. Weak
associations by year may be as close as the El Nio-tornado connection can get
-- because there are so many things on the scales of states, counties and
individual thunderstorms which can affect tornado formation. For more detailed
information, see The Relationship between El NiLa Nind United States Tornado
Activity, a research paper by Schaefer and Tatom.
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What city has been hit by the most tornadoes? Oklahoma City.
The exact count varies because city limits and tornado reporting practices have
changed over the years; but the known total is now over 100. Mike Branick of the
Norman NWS has prepared a detailed listing of 112 OKC-area tornadoes, updated through
2003. Another way to measure tornado count and avoid the vagaries of political
boundaries is to use tornado hits within a radius; though this method will
include tornadoes in some nearby communities. Frank Tatom has compiled such a
list, using affected land area within a 20 mile radius of downtown of each city
with at least 100,000 people. Through 2003, Oklahoma City also leads by this
measure, followed by Huntsville AL.
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I noticed the word "preliminary" used a lot in the SPC tornado stats, and
"final" too. What do those mean? Tornado data usually reaches SPC first from local storm reports
(LSRs), warnings or other bulletins sent by local NWS forecast offices. Such reports are usually sent
within the first day or two after a severe weather event, before all the
information on a tornado is known. In fact, some tornado information might not
be known for many weeks or months -- for example, if someone who was injured
dies from his injuries a long time afterward. That is why we call all tornado
data "preliminary" until the National Climatic Data Center publication Storm Data is
completed. Storm Data contains the "final" information on all severe
weather events.
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How many tornadoes have there been in my state or county?
The
actual number is unknown, because it is likely that (throughout the course of
history) many tornadoes were either not reported or erroneously categorized.
Recorded tornadoes are listed and described in the National Climatic Data Center
publication Storm Data. NCDC is developing an interactive
online severe weather database which you can use to search your state and/or
county for tornado and other severe weather reports. NOTE: NCDC tornado data
is not for whole tornadoes, but for county-segments;
and there are still some incorrect county codings or other errors as docmented
by Doug Speheger of NWS Norman.
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What are
county-segments in NCDC tornado data? A
county-segment is that portion of a tornado's path within a single county. If a
tornado stays in one county, then a "tornado" is the same as a "segment." But
this also means that tornadoes are counted twice when they cross into another
county, three times when they enter a third county, and so forth. The reason for
county-segment tornado recordkeeping is that the National Weather Service
verifies tornado warnings by county. So when you look at NCDC tornado databases or the
NWS Natural
Hazard Statistics (based on Storm Data), you are not counting
tornadoes, but instead county-segments of tornado tracks. This causes
inflation of the tornado totals often reported by media and others who do not
notice this important distinction.
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Where else can I obtain climatological tornado data? Besides the NCDC online
lookup, an increasing number of local NWS offices have posted tornado stats for their regions.
[Reminder: NCDC and most local data are broken down by county path segments and not whole
tornadoes.] State-by-state value-added data can also be obtained from the Tornado Project
databases.
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Why do F-scale ratings differ between SPC and
others' tornado records? The F-scale is based on one's subjective judgment of damage
intensity, and hundreds of people have rated tornadoes for Storm Data
over the years. Currently, damage ratings for the "official" database are made
by meteorologists at each local forecast office where tornadoes are reported.
Sometimes, first-hand damage surveys are done, but because of travel budget
constraints, ratings often must be made from spotter, chaser and/or media
accounts. In order to assign F-scales to tornadoes from before about 1978 (the
year varies from state to state), NSSFC contracted with college students to
cross reference the NSSFC file with newspaper articles. When information that
conflicted with Storm Data were uncovered, a judgment call was made as to what
most likely occurred; and if necessary, the NSSFC information was "corrected" in
the final data base. Also, several "new" tornadoes (previously unreported ones)
were uncovered and added to the record. There were enough of these changes that
the NSSFC (now SPC) database sometimes has differences with Storm Data,
even before accounting for the county segments of
paths done at NCDC.
Tom Grazulis (1993) sometimes changed the "official" tornado ratings for Tornado Project records
based on his judgment of damage from historical tornado accounts in newspapers
and photographs. So, with all this interpretation going on, it is easy to see
how tornado records have become inconsistent for many events.
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Do countries other than the US get tornadoes? How many? How
strong? We know that tornadoes have been documented from many other
nations, but we don't have a solid record of their frequency or damage potential
in most areas. Several European countries, including the United Kingdom, Romania
and Finland, have begun keeping detailed tornado records in recent years, as
does Canada. Tornado records even in those nations are not as detailed or
comprehensive as those in the U.S., and can't be compared directly. Indeed, in
most of the world, there is no systematic documentation of tornadoes, other than
those that happen to cause great damage and death, or that are caught by chance
on someone's camera. To judge where else tornadoes are most common, we have to
use a mix of actual tornado reports with heavy statistical analysis of weather
records that indicate conditions favorable for them. Such a blend of recorded
and inferential study indicates that the U.S. remains tops in tornado
production, with secondary tornado-prone areas including the Canadian Prairie
Provinces, Bangladesh, Britain, northeastern Mexico, northern Argentina and
southern Brazil, and portions of southern Russia. The Mexican maximum (northern
Coahuila, east of the Serranias del Burro range) and Canadian tornado
prone zones each are border-crossing extensions of U.S. conditions.
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Do we know of other F5 or EF5 rated tornadoes besides those in the
U.S.?